Week three is in the books, and if there is one thing that I learned, it’s that I can pick the “pines” pretty well. The “rides,” however, not so much.

My record after week three:

Ride: (1-2-1)

Pine: (3-1)

My boldest take last week was that Derek Carr was going to finish as a top 10 QB, and he pretty much did just that (he technically finished as QB11, so I gave myself a “W” for that one). 

However, Courtland Sutton and Rondale Moore did not pull through, and my other rider, Elijah Mitchell, didn’t play, so I treat that as a push (same thing as a tie, if you are not familiar with betting terms). 

Looking forward though, I have the utmost confidence in myself that we are going to get a majority of the rides right this week. So without further adieu, let’s dive in. 

Side note: I am only going to do four this week because I want to dive deeper on some of the betting lines that I like. 

RIDE: CHASE EDMONDS, ARI

If you were lucky enough to secure Edmonds as your flex play or as a low end RB2, you are probably feeling pretty safe with him.

He’s averaging around 13 PPG, has surpassed 75 scrimmage yards in all three games and he has zero touchdowns. The fact that he has zero touchdowns is something that I don't think should worry fantasy owners, because the touchdowns will come eventually, but what is going to stay is the role that Edmonds has carved out for himself in this high-powered Arizona offense.

This week, he will go up against a Rams defense who is scary on paper with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but this defense just allowed nine receptions for 51 yards (19 PPR fantasy points) to Gio Bernard who didnt even record a single rushing attempt. I wouldn’t be surprised if Edmonds finished with 7+ receptions, 150 scrimmage yards and maybe even a touchdown.

Prediction: RB18 or better

PINE: DAMIEN HARRIS, NE

I really don’t want to pine the running back that plays against Tampa Bay every week, but until someone has a good game against that menacing front seven, I am going to do just that.

Unfortunately for Damien Harris, he is facing off against Tampa Bay this week. Last week Harris went against another stout rushing defense in New Orleans. Harris only had six carries for 14 yards and put up a whopping 2.10 fantasy points. This is definitely not the week he gets back on track either for two reasons.

The first being that this is a prime time revenge game, and I don’t get the feeling that Tampa Bay is going to let Tom Brady leave Foxbourugh with a loss. The second reason being that Harris is one of three running backs used on one of the worst offenses in the NFL. I simply think that the touches just won’t be there for him.

Prediction: RB25 or worse

RIDE: JA’MARR CHASE, CIN

The start that Ja’Marr Chase has gotten off to this season is nothing short of special. He has one touchdown reception in each of his first three games and has shown no signs of slowing down. As much as I want to say he’s not going to keep this pace up, I think he keeps it alive for at least one more week considering he’s playing at home against the Jaguars . 

Also, the fact that teammate Tee Higgins is out will definitely help Chase see more targets. Watch for Chase to carry the load on Thursday night. 

Prediction: WR24 or better 

PINE: DeAndre Hopkins, ARI and Chase Claypool, PIT

I am benching both of these players this week for the same reason. They are both going up against the only two shutdown corners in the league. Hopkins will go up against Jalen Ramsey and Claypool will face off against Jaire Alexander. 

I know it might sound crazy to bench Hopkins considering he is someone you probably drafted in the second round, but let me make a case for doing so. The last time Hopkins went up against Ramsey, he held him to four catches for 35 yards. The time before that, he held him to eight catches for 52 yards and a touchdown (that wasn’t on Ramsey). Take away that touchdown and it's a mediocre week. Hopkins might have another lucky touchdown, but I wouldn’t bank on it.

As for Claypool, we saw what Jaire did against Deebo Samuel last week (five catches for 52 yards), so I don't think Claypool is going to break that streak. It also doesn’t help Claypool that Diontae Johnson is most likely going to miss this week, so there will be no other receiver to take Alexander away from Claypool.

Prediction: Hopkins: WR24 or worse, Claypool WR30 or worse

BETTING LINES:

Current record against the spread: (3-0)

Last week I hit on all the spreads that I suggested so I am going to do the same thing this week, but this time I’m going to tell you why.

CHIEFS -7 @ PHI

If I would’ve said that the Chiefs would be 1-2 and sitting at last place in the AFC West after three weeks, you would have looked at me crazy. That being said, they are NOT going to fall to 1-3. 

This is what is going to happen: the Chiefs are going to blow out the Eagles by at least two touchdowns. This is the same Eagles team that we just saw get embarrassed by the Cowboys on Monday night, and the Chiefs are by far a better team than the Cowboys. If I’m being honest, I really don’t have another argument other than the fact that a -7 spread is highway robbery. That is the same spread that the Bengals are getting against the Jaguars.

I have watched every NFL game this season and my eyes tell me that the Chiefs will cover on Sunday at noon. 

Ravens +1 @ DEN

The Ravens had a pretty big scare against Detroit this weekend, and if it weren’t for Justin Tucker making a NFL record 66-yard field goal, they would have been upset against a team where Quintez Cephus is the starting wide receiver. However, that loss was a little deceiving. 

Ravens receiver Marquise Brown dropped THREE touchdown passes and kept the Lions in a game they really didn’t deserve to be in. The Ravens also might be getting their first round draft pick Rashod Bateman back from injury this week, which will definitely help out this depleted receiving core. 

Denver on the other hand is 3-0, but have literally played the three worst teams in the league in the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. Now, Denver is definitely a better team this year with Teddy Bridgewater under center, and they have a great defense to go along with a big home field advantage. Even with all of that, I am not ready to pick them against a strong playoff team that more often than not finds a way to win games. 

If all of that didn’t convince you, this next piece of information should. I would much rather bet on Lamar Jackson than against him. Hammer this +1 line until the sun comes up.

COWBOYS -4.5 VS CAR

This is another situation where a 3-0 team is involved, but again, who have the Panthers played? 

Carolina is coming off a game where there was real doubt if they were going to get out of Houston with a win. The Cowboys are coming into this game on a two-game win streak, including a blowout win against the Eagles, and have all the momentum in the world right now.

The fact that this line is only 4.5 is just blasphemy. Now, I know that every year the Cowboys have high expectations and almost always disappoint, but this year is different. The offense cannot be stopped, their defense is doing more than holding their own and Dak Prescott is looking a lot like he did when he was on the magnificent run at the start of last year.

Also, who would you rather bet on? Dak Prescott or Sam Darnold? 

Those are my three picks for the week — do what you wish with that information. I’ll tell you what I am going to do with it though: I am going to put all three of the lines I just mentioned in a parlay and win some free money.