Oscar Predictions 2022
Best Picture
The Nominees
“Belfast,” “CODA,” “Don’t Look Up,” “Drive My Car,” “Dune,” “King Richard,” “Licorice Pizza,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Power of the Dog” and “West Side Story”
The two front runners in this category seem to be “CODA” and “The Power of the Dog.” “Belfast” had a lot of the early award season momentum for Best Picture but slowly fell off as the season continued. Having won the top prize at both the Producers Guild Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG), “CODA” has a lot of late momentum going into Oscar night. “The Power of the Dog” has stuck around the conversation with wins for Best Motion Picture - Drama at the Golden Globes and Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards. As far as my personal opinion, I enjoyed “Dune” the most out of any film nominated for Best Picture this year and would love to see it take home the award on Oscar Sunday.
My Prediction: “CODA”
Best Director
The Nominees
Jane Campion - “The Power of the Dog,” Kenneth Branagh - “Belfast,” Paul Thomas Anderson - “Licorice Pizza,” Ryûsuke Hamaguchi - “Drive My Car” and Steven Spielberg - “West Side Story”
This category is a bit heartbreaking for me as Denis Villeneuve was not nominated for “Dune” even though he created one of the most mature and impressive sci-fi films of all time. It’s ok. I’m fine. I’m not upset. With that being said, even if Villeneuve had been nominated in this category, I believe Jane Campion would still walk away with this award as she’s won at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and Directors Guild Awards. She’s held on to her frontrunner status for much of the award season and there’s nobody else that’s challenged her in this category.
My Prediction: Jane Campion - “The Power of the Dog”
Best Actor
The Nominees
Andrew Garfield - “tick, tick… BOOM!,” Benedict Cumberbatch - “The Power of the Dog,” Denzel Washington - “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” Javier Bardem - “Being the Ricardos” and Will Smith - “King Richard”
This category has been narrowed down to Smith and Garfield as the two frontrunners. Smith has taken home most of the precursor awards that signal an Oscar win with victories at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards. Having been nominated twice before for Best Actor (for “Ali” and “The Pursuit of Happyness”) but not winning, it feels like this is Smith’s time to take home the Oscar gold. There is a little part of me that thinks Garfield could use the momentum from his wide range of performances in 2021 to pull off an upset, but it might not be enough against Smith’s campaign.
My Prediction: Will Smith - “King Richard”
Best Actress
The Nominees
Jessica Chastain - “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” Kristen Stewart - “Spencer,” Nicole Kidman - “Being the Ricardos,” Olivia Colman - “The Lost Daughter” and Penélope Cruz - “Parallel Mothers”
This category is a bit more open than Best Actor as there are a couple of different people that could walk away with this award. It seemed like Kidman became the favorite after her win at the Golden Globes, but then Chastain got wins at both the Critics Choice and SAG Awards which put her in contender status as well. Stewart delivered one of my favorite performances from last year in “Spencer” and would be my personal pick to take home this award as she proved that she is more than just the girl from the “Twilight” movies. All three of these actresses play real-life people which the Academy loves and gives them all a great chance at winning. I think Kidman gets the slight edge here because of her excellent portrayal of Hollywood royalty Lucille Ball.
My Prediction: Nicole Kidman - “Being the Ricardos”
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees
Ciarán Hinds - “Belfast,” J.K. Simmons - “Being the Ricardos,” Jesse Plemons - “The Power of the Dog,” Kodi Smit-McPhee - “The Power of the Dog” and Troy Kotsur - “CODA”
Again this category is down to two actors: Kodi Smit-McPhee and Troy Kotsur. Smit-McPhee took home the Golden Globe while Kotsur took home the Critics Choice and SAG Award. This is a much tighter race than it was a couple of months ago as Smit-McPhee felt like the runaway favorite but Kotsur has slowly crept back into the conversation. I think the late push for “CODA” could extend into other categories besides Best Picture, but this may be one of the few categories that “The Power of the Dog” takes home a statue for. It’s a close race, but Kotsur’s momentum feels like it’s coming in at just the right time.
My Prediction: Troy Kotsur - “CODA”
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees
Ariana DeBose - “West Side Story,” Aunjanue Ellis - “King Richard,” Jessie Buckley - “The Lost Daughter,” Judi Dench - “Belfast” and Kirsten Dunst - “The Power of the Dog”
This is one of the few categories that feels like an absolute lock. DeBose’s performance in “West Side Story'' complements Rita Moreno’s performance from the original film in 1961, while also standing on its own. It would also be a great bit of Academy history of two people winning an Oscar for playing the same character, with the only other times being Marlon Brando and Robert De Niro winning for playing Vito Corleone in “The Godfather” and “The Godfather Part II” and Heath Ledger and Joaquin Phoenix for playing the Joker in “The Dark Knight” and “Joker” respectively.
My Prediction: Ariana DeBose - “West Side Story”
Quick Picks:
Best Original Screenplay: “Belfast”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “CODA”
Best Cinematography: “Dune”
Best Editing: “Dune”
Best Production Design: “Dune”
Best Costume Design: “Cruella”
Best Sound: “Dune”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Best Original Score: “Dune”
Best Original Song: “No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die” by Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell
Best Visual Effects: “Dune”
Best Animated Film: “Encanto”
Best International Feature Film: “Drive My Car”