Ride or Pine: Week 11
Graphic by Anna Gruben
Welcome back to “Ride or Pine,” the only column outside of the Los Angeles area where “Bobby Trees” will still be mentioned every week. Get better soon, young king.
Last week was not an ideal week for our ride lineup, but I am going to make excuses and complain about why that was the case:
Diontae Johnson had to play with Mason Rudolph as his quarterback.
The Seahawks were shutout by the Packers which left Tyler Lockett helpless.
Mike Gesicki had seven targets with zero catches.
Matt Ryan finished with negative points.
The pine lineup didn't really do that well either, as their leading scorer was the Dallas Defense who put up 23 points. Nonetheless, I am disappointed in myself and will do better this week.
Week 10 matchup:
Rides: 68.8 points (2-1)
Pines: 81.4 points (1-2)
Onto week 11.
RIDES:
QB: Ryan Tannehill vs HOU- Tannehill is having a very respectable season in terms of fantasy football — currently ranked the QB12 on the year thus far. Not only are the Titans currently the number one seed in the AFC, but they will most likely remain there, as they will face off against a very poor Houston Texans squad. I expect Tannehill to put up QB1 type numbers as he has done for most of the year.
RB: A.J. Dillon @ MIN- Aaron Jones is more than likely going to be out for this game, which makes A.J. Dillon a top 10 RB. This is going to be a tough divisional game against a Minnesota team looking to get back on track, but I think Dillon celebrates Thanksgiving a little early and absolutely feasts on the Vikings.
RB: Elijah Mitchell @ JAX- I would like to say that I was right about Elijah Mithchell. Last week, we saw Jeff Wilson Jr. come back from injury, and there was some talk of him and Mitchell splitting carries in a 50/50 timeshare. Well, Mitchell ended the game with 27 carries and 91 rushing yards. That is elite. I also think that the 49ers are going to stick to what they do best against Jacksonville, which is controlling the clock by running the ball. Mitchell does have a broken finger, but is expected to play regardless. That’s my running back.
WR: Marquise Brown @ CHI- Yes, Marquise Brown had a very mediocre performance against Miami last Thursday night. However, in the two games where Brown has put up single digit fantasy points this season, he went out and scored a touchdown the following week. I expect him to do that again.
WR: Jaylen Waddle @ NYJ- I broke down how much better Jaylen Waddle plays when Tua Tagovailoa is the QB rather than Jacoby Brissett in a previous column. Just in case you were wondering, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores has already announced Tagovailoa as the starting QB this week, which makes Waddle a solid WR2 or flex play.
TE: Hunter Henry @ ATL- In the last seven weeks, Hunter Henry has seven touchdowns. I don’t know why you wouldn’t play him at this point.
FLEX: Hunter Renfrow vs CIN- Like I said last week, Hunter Renfrow is the best wide receiver on his team, and he is being treated like such with the amount of targets and receptions he has gotten in the last couple of games since Henry Ruggs was released. Continue to have him in your lineups.
D/ST: Tennessee vs HOU- This pick should be obvious.
PINES:
QB: Carson Wentz @ BUF- Despite the fact that Carson Wentz is playing some of the best football of his career right now, I am still putting him in this pine lineup. The Colts have to play at Buffalo against a defense who allows the least amount of fantasy points to opposing QBs (11.1). Stay away from Wentz, I beg of you.
RB: Antonio Gibson @ CAR- Remember a couple weeks ago when I said that Antonio Gibson was the NFC version of Josh Jacobs? Well, I was right. Gibson got two lucky goal-line touchdowns that pretty much saved his day from being abysmal. I don’t expect lightning to strike twice against a very good Carolina run defense that allows the fourth least amount of points to RBs.
RB: Saquon Barkley @ TB- In his first game back from another injury, I wouldn’t expect Saquon Barkely to do a whole lot, especially against this Tampa Bay defense. I love Barkely as a player and wish him nothing but the best, but I don’t know if we will ever see rookie year Barkley in the foreseeable future.
WR: D.J. Moore vs WFT- Remember when D.J. Moore looked like the reincarnation of Jerry Rice through the first four weeks of the season? Well, the last six weeks of the season, Moore has looked like 2013 Torrey Smith. Also, in those past six weeks, Moore has failed to score any touchdowns. With Cam Newton back under center in Carolina, I wouldn’t exactly predict a passing onslaught as the preferred game strategy. Moore is a very risky WR2 right now.
WR: Marvin Jones vs SF- Marvin Jones has failed to score over nine fantasy points in three straight weeks, and the way the 49ers defense looked last week, I don’t know if it's a great matchup for these Jacksonville wide receivers. Obviously, the argument for Jones has been that he should be the one getting all of the volume since D.J. Chark is out for the season, but that’s just not happening. Until it does, Jones is a very unsafe option at the wide receiver position.
TE: Dallas Goedert vs NO- The Saints allow the fourth least amount of points to opposing tight ends the season. On top of that, Goedert hasn’t scored a touchdown in five straight weeks.
FLEX: Corey Davis vs MIA- In almost every game that Zach Wilson has started, Corey Davis has been a very unreliable option at wide receiver. The only thing that will save his stock this week is going to be a lucky touchdown, because I am fairly certain that he won't see over 60 receiving yards.
D/ST: Pittsburgh @ LAC- The Chargers have the firepower to light up the scoreboard at any time, and the Pittsburgh Steelers just tied a game with the Detroit Lions. Enough said.
BETTING LINES:
Record ATS: (18-8-1)
Last weeks record: (2-2)
Lock of the week (0-0) *keep reading
Another weekend of football, and another weekend split.
Every one of my spread picks either won very easily, or lost very badly, which I guess isn’t a terrible thing. Considering that I still have yet to have a losing week is very comforting and gives me a lot of confidence going forward.
I know you aren’t reading this column to hear me talk about my mental state, so let's get into an action packed week 11 of some NFL football.
NEW ORLEANS +1.5 @ PHI
This is a game that the Saints are just going to win outright. I guarantee it.
Philadelphia has transformed into a running football team over these past couple weeks, and New Orleans is one of the best defenses in the league against the run. I also don't know if there has been a game this season where Jalen Hurts has legitimately beat a team with his arm.
Also, New Orleans is coming off a two-point loss, with no Alvin Kamara, against the current number one seed in the Tennessee Titans. If Kamara plays and Sean Peyton can get just 75% of this team's full potential, the Saints are going to win this game.
The bottom line is, I just don’t see the Saints losing three games in a row, which they haven’t done since weeks one, two and three of the 2016 season.
I’m classifying this pick as a lock, which I am going to start doing every week, and I am disappointed in myself that I didn’t think of it earlier.
Lock me in for this Saints spread.
MINNESOTA +2.5 vs GB
I feel slightly idotic for picking this game, but the Vikings have been good to me as of late, so I am going to repay the favor. Yes, I am well aware the Packers have covered against the spread nine weeks in a row, but this is the week it ends.
Aaron Jones is out for the Packers this week with an MCL sprain, which will leave A.J. Dillon to carry the load. Also, the Packers offense just has not looked the same as it did a year ago when Aaron Rodgers was the MVP.
Not only am I worried about the offense of the Packers, but this Green Bay secondary without Jaire Alexander is very questionable. I would be shocked if the Vikings didn’t try to exploit this weakness with Kirk Cousins taking shots down the field to his Pro Bowl receivers.
This is one of those games where I don’t have statistics to back up my pick. I am relying solely on my eyes and my knowledge that the Vikings are going to give the Packers all they can handle in this game. It’s also worth noting that division games are a lot different and anything can happen.
Give me Kirk. Give me Dalvin. Give me J Jettas, but most importantly, give me an absolutely BOOMING U.S. Bank Stadium with 60,000+ seats filled with Minnesota faithful.
KANSAS CITY -2.5 vs DAL
Of course the one weekend that I bet against Dallas, they go and blow out my Falcons. It’s unfortunate that I am going to do it again this week.
Dallas is coming into this game riding very high after beating the brakes off of the Falcons at home, but they are going to come back down to Earth this week.
The Cowboys are very well going to be a contender to win it all this year, but I am going to ride with what I said last week. This is the start of a long Chiefs winning streak.
I am trying not to overreact to the win over the Raiders last week, but that was just the type of game that they needed to get this thing back on track. I said a couple weeks ago that I wasn’t going to trust the Chiefs again unless they gave me a reason to trust them — last week was that reason.
It’s a home game under the lights, and Patrick Mahomes is determined to show everyone why he is the best quarterback to ever play the game of football. Give me the Chiefs by a field goal against a Dallas team who really hasn’t gone against a whole lot of competition so far this year.