The card of all cards is finally here. With three fights that could arguably stand alone as main events, Madison Square Garden and the MMA world are set to explode on Saturday night. Here are my predictions for the highly-anticipated fights this weekend as well as some background information for those who aren’t quite as familiar with the details.

Lightweight Bout: Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler

Gaethje was the interim UFC lightweight champion for a brief spell in 2020 before he was defeated by Khabib Nurmagomedov last October, unifying the belt before Khabib’s retirement. Prior to that loss, Gaethje had strung together an impressive MMA resumé and currently holds a 22-3 record as the number two lightweight contender.

Chandler was a long-time Bellator legend before finally stepping into the UFC octagon in January. After winning his UFC debut against Dan Hooker, he was promptly given a title shot against Charles Oliveira, where he was knocked out in the second round. Chandler holds a 22-6 record as the number five lightweight contender.

It’s no secret that Chandler is a world-class fighter. He’s an all-American wrestler, and has tremendous power in his right hand. In the mid 2010’s, I strongly believe that he could have battled with the best of the best in the UFC’s lightweight division despite being in a weaker league — I’m sad to say that I no longer believe that to be the case. The combination of Chandler’s age (34) and the current strength of the UFC lightweight division puts Chandler in a very tough spot.

Gaethje is an expert striker that has rounded out all aspects of his game over the course of his career. No matter who he’s fighting, Gaethje is going to land his strikes. He’s a savant in that regard. He has very good takedown defense, and when the fight does go to the mat, his bottom game is second-to-none.

Here’s how the two match up. Chandler’s greatest strengths are his wrestling and his submission game. Chandler may wrestle Gaethje — he may even take him down successfully — but he is not going to submit him. Gaethje has only been submitted once, and it was at the hands of Khabib; Chandler is not Khabib.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

As I mentioned, there’s not a man alive that could stop Gaethje from landing strikes, but in this fight, his strikes are going to be landing at an even higher rate. Chandler does not have the defense to handle what Gaethje is going to bring. Chandler’s stance and overall fighting style leave his defense compromised, allowing Gaethje to connect on blow after blow. At this point in his career, I truly don’t think Chandler has the chin to get through that. However, if he does, and the fight goes the distance, then there is truly no chance that Chandler will win this fight by decision with the sheer volume that Gaethje will be landing.

The only chance that Chandler has to win this fight will be if he connects on one of his signature right hands and it puts Gaethje out, which of course could happen. Gaethje’s defense can sometimes be sloppy, and all it takes is one punch. However, I am very confident in this pick.

Prediction: Gaethje wins by third-round knockout.

Women’s Strawweight Championship: Rose Namajunas vs. Zhang Weili 2

This pick, I am much less confident about. The odds are darn-near even and have flipped back and forth, but the UFC’s latest Instagram poll showed 73% of fans riding with Namajunas. Either way, it’s sure to be a dog fight and an excellent rematch.

Namajunas is the reigning, defending, undisputed UFC strawweight champion of the world — a title she claimed from Zhang by way of a spectacular high-kick knockout victory in April. She is powerful, owning the most knockout victories in the history of the UFC’s strawweight division. She is a flashy striker that has shown Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu prowess at times. She is the fan-favorite who has proven she can shine at the biggest stage. Namajunas holds a record of 11-4.

Zhang and Namajunas have incredibly similar resumés — both have victories against Tecia Torres, Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Additionally, they both have very similar fighting styles. They both predominantly attack the head and throw a very high number of significant strikes. This both eliminates any obvious matchup discrepancies and makes this fight a surefire recipe for a close, thrilling battle. Zhang holds a record of 21-2 as the number one strawweight contender.

What I aim to look at are their past victories and losses. In each of her three UFC losses, Namajunas has been finished (twice by submission and once by knockout). Before her defeat at the hand (or foot) of Namajunas, Zhang hadn’t lost since 2013, in a two-round amateur fight that somehow counted against her record.

In their matchups against Andrade, Namajunas lost in their first bout before winning by split decision in the rematch, and Zhang dominated Andrade by way of first-round knockout. Conversely, Namajunas looked more dominant against Jedrzejczyk relative to Zhang’s split-decision victory. However, it is Zhang’s consistent dominance and versatility that leads me to believe that she is the better fighter.

To understand more of this context, watch the dismantling of Torres and Andrade at the hands of Zhang.

This is tough to say. Like everybody, I love Thug Rose. She managed to crank off an unlikely high kick knockout that put Zhang down, and it is possible that something incredibly similar will happen on Saturday night — possible, but unlikely. It is probable that Zhang could have continued after the legendary kick, but she got complacent in defending her head on the ground, and the ref called the fight. She won’t make the same mistake again.

Barring another spectacular, flashy knockout blow from Namajunas, I give Zhang the slight edge if this fight becomes a sustained striking clinic, though it is very close.

Zhang will have fire coming into that cage with her last defeat in mind, and will be throwing a lot of volume. If she isn’t landing her big strikes, Namajunas will have zero opportunity for a level change to get away from Zhang’s striking. Zhang has never been taken down before, and her first time will not be by Namajunas.

On the other hand, if Namajunas’ big strikes are landing and Zhang wants to instead incorporate the ground game, she will absolutely be able to. Namajunas’ takedown defense is abysmal.

It is certainly very possible that Namajunas connects on a phenomenal blow that puts Zhang out of the fight, but I think there are more scenarios in which Zhang emerges victorious.

Again, this one is extremely close.

Prediction: Zhang wins by unanimous decision.

Welterweight Championship: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2

Another rematch, another fight that will undoubtedly be a classic. The first time these two fighters met at UFC 245 in December of 2019, it was one of the greatest fights in history. These are two guys that can do it all, but are known for their unparalleled wrestling. Their wrestling is so good, in fact, that neither wanted to wrestle one another in their first matchup, in which Usman won by fifth-round knockout.

There’s no questioning that these two are the flat-out best welterweights in the game right now. Usman is the pound-for-pound number one fighter in the world. On the pound-for-pound list, Covington is unranked, which I find very surprising. There’s certainly some fighters on there that I would put him ahead of.

Usman holds a record of 19-1, riding an incredible 14-fight win streak. For years, the man has been unbeatable. He first gained the belt in 2019, where he absolutely annihilated five-time welterweight champion Tyron Woodley, landing 336 strikes to Woodley’s 60. He has seemingly run through every contender the welterweight division has to offer and is making a second lap. His stand-up game matches the best of the best. His clinch is inescapable. He has never once been taken down. He is the Nigerian Nightmare.

In the opposing corner, Covington has beaten the best and has established himself as a perennial superstar in the UFC. He has tremendous wrestling and Jiu Jitsu that lead to his fighting style of total dominance. In his first fight with Usman, he showed a tremendous striking capability as well, and cemented his reputation of delivering overwhelming volume and damage. That night he lost to Usman, I honestly believe that he would’ve defeated any other fighter. Covington holds a record of 16-2 as the number one welterweight contender.

This ability to bombard his opponent with a high volume of powerful strikes is Covington’s sole path to victory. He can’t wrestle Usman, and Usman can’t wrestle him. This fight will once again be won in the stand-up, in which Usman is the better, more technical striker.

Covington will surely be looking to do things differently in this fight (or at least one would assume, being that he lost), and Usman has already said that he has a different approach to this fight. Instead of fighting to fight out of aggression and ill-will toward Covington, Usman has stated that he’ll be fighting to win.

Similar to Zhang, Covington will be coming in with a vengeance. However, this time, it will work to his disadvantage. Covington will be swinging for the fences, determined to make a statement. Usman is presumably going into this fight with a more technical approach given his previous remarks. He won’t bother to engage Covington in the game he wants to play, and will find an opportunity to move to the clinch when Covington is exposed amid his frenzy of volume. That position is where Usman truly cannot be beat.

In the striking realm, Covington is going to absorb some big shots, both to the body and head, as he is compromised while swinging for the fences. Covington will land a lot on Usman, and Usman knows this, but precision beats power. In Usman’s case, he always has both. Regardless of what Usman lands, Covington is not getting knocked out again, but he’ll get hurt. As Covington wears down, Usman will run it up, and he can do so in any way imaginable.

Now, despite everything I’ve said, you don’t need an analysis here. You’d have to be crazy to pick against Usman. He’s the best fighter in the world for a reason.
Prediction: Usman wins by unanimous decision.

UFC 268 Predictions