Week seven fantasy football: Ride or Pine?
Graphic by Anna Gruben
Welcome to the fifth installment of Ride or Pine.
I am writing this column today with a very heavy heart, as I am sad to report the undefeated streak is now officially over. I will talk more about it when I get to the betting lines section of this article, but first, let’s recap an outstanding week of fantasy football.
RECORD AFTER WEEK 6:
Rides: (4-4-1)
Pines: (6-4)
It was a rough week on both sides of the bench this week.
Javonte Williams did not have the breakout game as I expected, but I still am confident that it is coming soon. Robert Woods, aka Bobby Trees, did indeed catch a touchdown, but only had 31 yards to go along with that. Allen Robinson is the only pick I got right last week, finishing as the WR46. As for Josh Jacobs, I will save him for later.
I also want to try a new format for this week’s article because I think that the more players that I mention, the more helpful it is to the audience. Therefore, the chances of me mentioning a player that you actually have on your team will be a lot greater than usual.
I hope you enjoy this new look.
RIDES:
Disclaimer: Yes, this is meant to look like an actual fantasy football lineup. To be honest, I haven’t seen anyone else do a start/sit article like this, and I am all about originality. This is the second time in just five weeks that I have proved I am more creative than Matthew Berry.
QB: Matt Ryan @ MIA- Over the past four weeks, Matt Ryan is averaging 29.4 fantasy points per game. His matchup this week is against the Miami Dolphins who currently allow the ninth most points to quarterbacks through these first six weeks. Ryan is also available in 65% of ESPN leagues. Start him with confidence.
RB: Darrel Williams @ TEN- Please tell me why Darrel Williams put up more points in his first start (23.9), than Clyde Edwards-Helaire has put up in any of his five previous starts (20.4). With Edwards-Helaire still on IR, I expect Williams to have a very similar role this week against the Titans.
RB: Chase Edmonds vs HOU- Through six weeks, Edmonds still has yet to score a touchdown. That might scare some of you, but I am going to guarantee that he gets in the end zone this week for one simple reason: if he doesn’t get one against the Texans, I don’t know when he’s ever going to get one. I like Edmonds with a bounce-back week.
WR: Antonio Brown vs CHI- Brown is currently averaging the sixth most points among wide receivers to start this season. You cannot leave someone like that on your bench, especially against the Bears.
WR: Jaylen Waddle vs ATL- I know that Waddle doesn’t seem like a guy you should be putting into your lineup, but let me make the case: Waddle is one of those guys who has the speed and playmaking to bust a 70-yard touchdown. Usually, with guys like that, their floor is just as spectacular as their ceiling, but not with Waddle. With Jacoby Brisset at quarterback, Waddle is averaging 7.5 targets and 9 fantasy points per game. With Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, Waddle is averaging 9 targets and 23 fantasy points per game. Tagovailoa is the quarterback this week, just in case you didn’t know.
TE: Ricky Seals-Jones @ GB- Since Logan Thomas went on the IR, Seals-Jones has emerged as a great player to stream if you are weak at the tight end position. I wouldn’t expect a top-three finish from Seals-Jones, but top ten? I’d say that’s more than likely.
FLEX: Elijah Mitchell vs IND- If you read the first edition of Ride or Pine, you know that I am going to ride Elijah Mitchell until one of us dies. The opportunity will be there for Mitchell this week as he appears to be at the top of the depth chart moving forward. He does play a tough Colts defense this week, but I simply do not care. Mark Mitchell down for at least 45 fantasy points.
DEF: Patriots vs NYJ- There really isn’t anything I can tell you other than the fact that the Patriots are playing the New York Jets. These teams played back in week two and the Pats defense put up 19 fantasy points in a game where the Pats won, 25-6. It’s also an added bonus that the Pats are at home this week.
K: Not Josh Lambo.
PINES:
QB: Justin Fields @ TB- The good news for Fields is that he put up the most fantasy points of his career last week against the Green Bay Packers. The bad news is that it was only 13.26 points. The even worse news is that the Bears are on the road this week against the menacing Tampa Bay defense. I honestly think that Colt McCoy will put more points on the board than Fields will.
RB: Josh Jacobs vs PHI- If you missed last week’s article, I broke down Jacobs’ rushing stats from every game. Through the first five weeks, Jacobs had not averaged over four yards-per-carry in any game, proving my point that he is one of the least efficient backs in fantasy football. Last week he proved me right again by rushing for 53 yards on 16 carries (3.31 yards-per-carry). To go along with being the least efficient, he also happens to be the luckiest. If not for his miraculous goal-line touchdown runs, that I immediately screen record and send in my group chats to show my friends how Jacobs might be Walter Payton reincarnated, Jacobs would have been an RB30 or worse in games he has been healthy for this season.
RB: Miles Sanders @ LV- Here are Miles Sanders’ fantasy finishes since week two (.5 ppr): 6.4 points vs SF, 7.0 points @ DAL, 6.2 points vs KC, 7.6 points @ CAR, 7.6 points vs TB. If you want to start him, go ahead, but I wouldn’t hold your breath.
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. vs DEN- Beckham is probably one of the biggest teases in fantasy football because the memories of him hitting the whip and throwing his helmet at kicking nets as a member of the New York Giants make you think about the old OBJ and what he did for fantasy football. I myself held out hope that it was going to happen this year, but unfortunately for me, that guy seems to live only in the past. He hasn’t performed anywhere near that level since he has been on the Browns, and we need to stop thinking that he will. I’m not saying he’s a terrible play this week, he might get 10 or so points, but temper your expectations.
WR: Tyler Lockett vs NO- Lockett, when paired with Russell Wilson, is one of the best deep threats in the game. However, even when he has been paired with Wilson he is very boom or bust. Lockett has played four full games with Wilson. In the first two games of the season, Lockett averaged 25.9 points. In weeks three and four, he averaged just 4.8 fantasy points. It can’t get any worse than that, right? Wrong. Geno Smith will be the starter for the foreseeable future while Wilson is out with a finger injury. Say goodbye to not only Wilson, but also the “boom” factor that Lockett no longer possesses. This was proven in Smith’s first start, as Lockett had just two receptions for 4.5 points. Do not start him against the Saints.
FLEX: Melvin Gordon and Jovonte Williams @ CLE- When you make Teddy Bridgewater try to beat you with his arm, you are more than likely going to beat this Broncos team. That being said, I am all but guaranteeing that the Browns are going to shut down this Denver ground attack (Cleveland also allows the fifth-least amount of points to running backs). To make matters worse, there just aren't enough opportunities for both of these guys to have a highly productive game. Stay away from both of them in week seven.
DEF: Chicago @ TB- Tampa Bay might drop 40 on Chicago’s head this weekend. Find another option.
K: Josh Lambo.
BETTING LINES:
RECORD AFTER WEEK 6:
Against the spread (ATS): (10-1-1)
As I mentioned in the introduction, we have lost our first bet of this 2021 season. Obviously, you never want to lose a bet, but this one didn’t hurt as bad, because you have to respect the game Tennessee played to beat the Bills on Monday night.
Despite the loss, we still went 2-1 on the weekend as the Cowboys and Chiefs covered for us once again. Before we get into the week seven spreads, I just want to say that the Dallas Cowboys are still undefeated ATS. They are playing the Vikings next week and I don’t care if the spread is -20, I am betting on them.
Okay, I am done. Let’s get into this week.
NEW ENGLAND -7 VS NYJ
Last week’s game between the Patriots and the Cowboys is definitely a contender for game of the year. New England gave Dallas everything that they could handle and came up just short. I am someone who believes in a “good loss.” That was a good loss for the New England Patriots — one that I believe is going to help them absolutely murder the New York Jets at home.
In my personal opinion, Mac Jones has looked like the best rookie quarterback through the first six weeks, and he is only going to get better. However, the New England defense is the reason why I am picking them this week. They are going to lead this team to a win, but that's not the issue. The issue at hand here is whether or not this is going to be a close game. Well, everything that I have seen so far is telling me that it won’t be.
New England is coming into this game playing the best they have all season, and Zach Wilson’s last time out was two weeks ago in London against Atlanta, where he looked horrendous. I believe in Bill Belichick, I believe in Mac Jones, but most of all, I believe in the great sports fans of Boston who will make Gillette Stadium sound like it’s a Travis Scott concert.
Give me the Pats -7.
INDIANAPOLIS +3.5 @ SF
I think this might be the first time all season that I am betting on the underdog spread, which is something that I don’t like to do. However, I genuinely think that the Colts are going to win this game straight up against the 49ers, and the fact that this spread is +3.5 is a great cushion just in case they don’t win.
The Colts are coming off a dominating 31-3 win against the Houston Texans, and yes, I know it was the Texans, but they did what they were supposed to do and I am not going to hold that against them. Also, the Colts have been playing a winning brand of football as of late, and it feels like no one is noticing.
I said it before, and I’ll say it again. You can learn a lot about a team even when they lose. Last Monday night, we saw the Colts go toe-to-toe with the Ravens, who are without a doubt a top-three team in the league. If it weren’t for Lamar Jackson having the game of his life and a missed field goal by Rodrigo Blakenship, the Colts would have left Baltimore with a win.
Let’s also not forget that Carson Wentz is actually still good. Wentz currently boasts a 9-1 TD/INT ratio and has a better passer rating than both Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. The Colts have a great offensive line, a great running back in Jonathan Taylor and have a pretty solid receiving core (especially with T.Y. Hilton back).
The 49ers, on the other hand, seem to be unsure of who they are starting at quarterback. To be honest, I think Jimmy Garrapolo scares me just a little bit more than Trey Lance does, but regardless, I think this is a game that the Colts win or at the very least keep close.
I already sent in my bet for +3.5 because I could see the spread going down to +2 by game time on Sunday night. This is definitely my favorite bet of the weekend.
LA RAMS -15 VS DET
There are a lot of insanely huge spreads this weekend. Arizona vs Houston is -18.5 and Tampa Bay vs Chicago is -12.5. I usually don’t bet on these games with huge spreads, but we just saw the Rams annihilate the Giants by 17 points, and I think the Giants are a little better than the Lions.
It’s also worth pointing out that this is a revenge game for both of the quarterbacks. The game is in Los Angeles, so if anything, it is probably more of a revenge game between Jared Goff and Sean McVay. Goff and McVay spent three years in LA together, which makes McVay one of the only people in the league who knows exactly what Goff’s weaknesses are.
This just feels like one of those games where the Lions could be shut out, while Stafford and company unleash an avalanche of points that suffocate poor Goff.
Also, just to prove a point of how bad the Lions are, try to name one Lions defensive player without looking it up.
That's right, you can't. Don’t worry, I couldn’t do it either.
Rams by 20.