Week six fantasy football: Ride or Pine?
Graphic by Anna Gruben
Welcome back to “Ride or Pine,” the weekly column from the man who is hotter than a supermodel in the Arizona desert (I am obviously referring to my record ATS, I am a 6.5/10 on my best day on).
Let’s recap last week.
RECORD AFTER WEEK 5:
Rides: (4-2-1)
Pines: (5-3)
I went 2-0 on my rides last week, as Damien Williams and Cordarrelle Patterson proved that they are going to be solid fantasy plays for the foreseeable future. It was the pines last week who truly surprised me.
Myles Gaskin scored more points in week five than he did the first four weeks combined. Courtland Sutton also decided to have his best fantasy day of the season, putting up a statline of 7/120/1. Even Josh Jacobs found his way into the endzone. I will say, that if he didn’t get that lucky one-yard TD run, he would have finished outside the top 30 in back to back weeks.
But enough with week five, let's get into week six.
RIDE: JAVONTE WILLIAMS, DEN
Call it a hunch, but I fully believe this is the week that Williams will break out and grab a hold of this Denver backfield.
Last week, Williams had just eight carries and still totaled 68 rushing yards (7.6 yards per carry). He vastly outplayed veteran Melvin Gordon, and the Broncos have even said that they fully trust Williams in every situation. It’s also worth noting that Williams did this against one of the best defenses in the league (Pittsburgh Steelers), who have allowed the fourth-least amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Looking forward to week six, everything is in place for Williams to have that breakout 100 yard, two touchdown day. The Broncos will go up against the Raiders in week six who are in complete shambles after losing their head coach Jon Gruden. On top of that, the Raiders have given up the ninth most points to running backs through five weeks.
Bottom line is that the Broncos are going to win this game, and they are going to do so on the back of Javonte Williams. Start him this week as a strong flex play.
Prediction: RB20 or better
PINE: JOSH JACOBS, LV
I don’t want to stay in this same game, but the Raiders and Josh Jacobs have left me no choice. As I said in the intro, if Jacobs didn’t get that lucky touchdown, he would have been a terrible play. He had 15 carries for just 48 yards (3.2 yards per carry). Now I know one game is a small sample size, so let’s look at his production so far this season.
Week 1: 10 carries for 34 yards (3.4 yards per carry)
Week 2: OUT WITH INJURY
Week 3: OUT WITH INJURY
Week 4: 13 carries for 40 yards (3.08 yards per carry)
Week 5: I already mentioned that he was terrible outside of a 1-yard touchdown run.
What about these stats would make you want to say, “You know what? I trust Josh Jacobs as my RB2.”
As I mentioned before, his next game is in Denver, which is one of the hardest places to play. Denver also just happens to allow the third least amount of points to the running back position this season.
Prediction: RB24 or worse.
Also, just to make this more fun, if he finishes within the top 24 in week six, I will order a Josh Jacobs jersey and post a picture of me wearing it in a future column. That is how much I disrespect Josh Jacobs as a fantasy football asset.
RIDE: ROBERT WOODS, LAR
Through the first four weeks of the season, Robert Woods had just 15 receptions. This left a lot of people questioning Woods’ role in this offense, and for good reason. Well, on the night before last week’s Thursday night game, Rams head coach Sean McVay said that they were going to get Woods “more opportunities” against the Seahawks. And guess what folks, more opportunities is what he got.
Woods finished the game with 12 receptions for 150 yards and in my opinion, proved why those first four weeks were just a fluke. Having a player like Woods on your team who is in a high-powered offense is a recipe for fantasy football success.
I truly believe that from this point on, Woods will produce for your fantasy teams the way he has the past three years. This week’s matchup for Woods is against the New York Giants, who got absolutely torched last week by the Cowboys. I would mark down Woods for at least 80 yards and a touchdown.
Prediction: WR20 or better
PINE: ALLEN ROBINSON, CHI
If you own Allen Robinson, I am sure that you don’t need me to tell you how disappointing he has been this year. Quite frankly, it has been surprising for the simple reason being that he has had terrible quarterbacks throughout his entire career and has still put up some pretty great fantasy numbers. I don’t think Andy Dalton and Justin Fields are any worse than Nick Foles, Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky, so for him to have put up such poor performances makes it hard for me to put it on him.
That being said, Robinson is just someone you can’t trust at this point in the season. Through five weeks, Robinson is the 63rd ranked wide receiver in .5 ppr.
I literally don’t even have anything else to say other than the thought of starting Allen Robinson should make you want to cry.
HOT TAKE OF THE WEEK: Allen Robinson will finish as the WR35 or worse.
BETTING LINES:
RECORD AFTER WEEK 5:
Against the spread: (8-0-1)
That’s right ladies and gentlemen, I remain undefeated through three weeks of picking against the spread.
If I am being completely honest, I think I am more proud of this current streak I am on than any other singular thing I have ever accomplished in my life.
Last week’s slate of games I actually thought was tough to sort through and pick out the lines that I really liked. If you go back and read last weeks’ column, my predictions about the Cowboys and Chargers couldn’t have been more spot on. I would have gotten that Packers pick right too if Mason “Crossbar” Crosby didn’t turn into Daniel Carlson on the Vikings (only real ones know what I am referring to).
So, without further adieu, let’s make some money.
DALLAS -3.5 @ NEW ENGLAND
HOW ABOUT THEM COWBOYS!
This Dallas Cowboys team has become my favorite team to bet on and I will continue to bet on them until further notice. They are still the only team in the league who has covered ATS in every game they have played this season.
I said it last week and I will say it again. Dallas has one of the best offenses in the league and their defense is an actual threat that opposing offenses have to gameplan for now. If you have been reading the column for the past three weeks, you know what the Cowboys bring to the table. However, what makes this spread so great is what the New England Patriots don’t bring to the table.
Houston quarterback Davis Mills should have gotten his first W against the Patriots on Sunday, but somehow someway the Pats pulled that game out. I want to be clear on two things. First, the Texans should have never even been in that game and the fact that they were should tell you more about the Patriots than it does about the Texans.
Second, this Patriot defense made Davis Mills look like prime Troy Aikman, as he threw for 313 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. This is the same Davis Mills that threw for 87 yards, four interceptions and also a lost fumble against the Buffalo Bills just a week before.
The fact that this spread is only -3.5 is actually crazy to me and tells me that Vegas still has zero respect for the Dallas Cowboys.
So, the only thing that I am asking you to do is respect the Dallas Cowboys. Bet on them and do so confidently. Cowboys win this one by at least a touchdown.
KANSAS CITY -6.5 @ WASHINGTON
I will be the first to admit that the Chiefs did not look good against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night, and it is for that reason that I am going to bet on Kansas City.
Now, let’s get the Kansas City defense talk out of the way. I know that they are basically last in every significant category on defense, but the bright side is they can’t get any worse. This is still the same team that killed the Philadelphia Eagles, 42-30 (Another game they were a -7 favorite).
We are obviously not betting on the Chiefs because of their defense, we are doing so because that Patrick Mahomes led offense can put 40 points on any team in the league. Game planning against this team is just as difficult and frustrating as watching Jackson Mahomes post TikToks of him doing the renegade while the Chiefs are down two touchdowns.
The point that I am trying to make, and one you probably already knew, is betting against this Kansas City offense should strike fear into your heart. The same cannot be said about the Washington Football Team.
A team that prided itself on defense last year has started 2021 by allowing more points per game and more yards per game than the powerhouse Houston Texans. To be fair, they have definitely made strides on the offensive side of the ball with Taylor “My Goat” Heinicke under center, but that alone is not enough to scare me away from this spread.
The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, and one thing they do really well is blow out bad and mediocre teams, and that is exactly what the Washington Football Team is. Just to add the cherry on top, Kansas City is the last team I would want to play coming off an embarrassing loss.
The Chiefs win this game by at least 10 points.
BUFFALO -5.5 @ TEN
The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most impressive teams to start this season and are coming off a blowout win against the Kansas City Chiefs. If you look past the first game where Buffalo lost to Pittsburgh, the Bills have a margin of victory of 28 points. They also have the best offense in the league based on points per game (34.4) to go along with the best defense in the league allowing the least amount of points per game (12.8). I hope you all realize how crazy and absurd that really is.
Just based on those facts, you would think that this spread would be somewhere in the -9 to -11 range, but that is not the case. For some reason, Vegas thinks this game is somehow going to be close, which I don't understand at all.
The Tennessee Titans are coming off a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars that was a lot closer than the box score would suggest. Also, who can forget about their loss to the New York Jets? That alone should tell you that this is not the same team from the past two years.
Actually, I take that back, because you know what is still the same about this team? The fact that their defense is so atrocious, they probably couldn’t even stop my brother’s 7th grade youth football team from putting 30 points on their head.
This -5 spread honestly just feels like a joke — a joke that I intend to take full advantage of.
That wraps up this week's picks, and as always, I am putting money on all three of these games.
As I said last week, this is financial advice because I believe wholeheartedly in everything that I just wrote about. So, consider me Jordan Belfort because I will make you rich and take you to the promised land (Disclaimer: you might encounter some tax evasion charges to go along with some time in a federal prison).