Week five fantasy football: Ride or Pine?
Graphic by Anna Gruben
Welcome back to “Ride or Pine,” the home of the best fantasy football and betting advice you can get in the Duluth area. To be honest, I am seeing the board more clearly than I ever have before. So, before we get to week five, let’s do a quick recap of last week.
RECORD AFTER WEEK 4:
Rides: (2-2-1)
Pines: (5-1)
A quick recap of last week:
The “Ride” that I felt the best about last week was Chase Edmonds, and he finished as the RB13 in .5 PPR. However, my hottest take was that DeAndre Hopkins would finish outside the top 24 against Jalen Ramsey, and as predicted, Hopkins finished as the WR46.
But enough with week four, week five is upon us, and I have some HOT takes that I feel real good about. Let's get after it.
RIDE: DAMIEN WILLIAMS, CHI
If you haven’t been paying a lot of attention to the NFL in the past couple years, you might have forgotten about Damien Williams. He sat out last year due to COVID-19 related reasons, but now he’s back and ready to turn some heads.
He finds himself in a starting role for the next 6-8 weeks while David Montgomery is out with a knee sprain, and quite frankly, I think people are sleeping on Williams and what he brings to this offense going forward.
This is someone who was the starting running back on a Super Bowl winning team with the Chiefs and has shown the ability to break big plays. Also, after Montgomery went down last week, he ran for 55 yards on just nine carries and also added a touchdown. His matchup this week is against Las Vegas who just gave up 28 points to Austin Ekeler on Monday Night Football.
I would strongly advise you to target him on the waiver wire or even buy low on him in some trades while you still can. Most of the people in the fantasy community have him as a flex play, ranking him around the RB24 for week five. Well I am going to put my money where my mouth is.
Prediction: RB18 or better
PINE: THE MIAMI BACKFIELD AND JOSH JACOBS, LV
I am treating this pine as a parlay deal because if you have been reading this column for the past couple weeks, you know the amount of respect I have for the Tampa Bay front seven. I have picked against the running backs who have faced Tampa Bay for two weeks in a row, and in those two weeks, those running backs finished as the RB28 and the RB50. Do not overthink this —stay away from the Miami running backs, I beg of you.
As for Josh Jacobs, I am just simply not a believer. I didn’t draft him on any of my 11 teams (yes I know, I am an addict), and he had a great matchup against the LA Chargers on Monday night. Well, he finished as the RB35, putting up just 8.2 points. That is unacceptable.
Jacobs this week is going against a much more stout Chicago Bears defense, so why would I expect anything other than disappointment? Get this man off your team if you have him, and stay away from him in week five.
Prediction: MIA backfield, RB30 or worse, Jacobs RB24 or worse
RIDE: CORDARRELLE PATTERSON, ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson is the RB2 in all of fantasy football through the first four weeks. Yes, you read that right. Patterson has taken the entire fantasy football world by storm, especially after he put up 32 points in week four. He went for 82 receiving yards and three touchdowns, but there is still one question that remains: what kind of pace can he maintain for the rest of the season?
As much as I love Patterson, I’d be shocked if he finished inside of the top five for running backs at the end of the regular season, but top 12? I could get behind that. It might sound crazy to some, but until he has a bad game or two, I think you have to start him no matter what.
He has carved out a significant role in this offense and has surpassed fellow running back Mike Davis in this Atlanta offense in terms of pure production. Plus, his matchup this week is the New York Jets, which will take place in London.
Now I know the Jets just beat the Titans to grab their first win, but let's be honest, this is still the Jets we are talking about here. This is a game that Atlanta is going to win and another game where Patterson will shine, especially since Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are both not playing.
Prediction: RB20 or better
PINE: COURTLAND SUTTON, DEN
If you remember from week three, I told you to start Courtland Sutton and I even said that you should trade for him. Well, I was just dead wrong. Sutton has had just one game where he has surpassed 10 fantasy points, and that game came against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I thought for sure that when Jerry Jeudy went down that Sutton was going to step up and be the main pass catcher in this offense. However, the reality is that Sutton has underperformed to a point where I can’t even make an excuse for it.
To make matters worse for Sutton, he is going up against a very strong Steelers defense. One that held Davante Adams to just 64 receiving yards last week.
I have always felt like Sutton has had the talent to succeed as a top tier fantasy wideout, but something about this Denver offense just feels off this year. I would definitely temper my expectations for him this week
Prediction: WR30 or worse
BETTING LINES:
RECORD AFTER WEEK 4:
Against the spread (ATS): 6-0
When I first started this column, I threw a couple of lines at the bottom of the page just as something to think about. Now, this might be my new favorite thing to write about. As I said in the intro, my mind has not been more clear, and I am going for 9-0 this week on picks ATS.
I also want to take the time to say this. A lot of people in this industry will give you advice and then say “this is not financial advice.” You know why they say that? Because they themselves don’t even follow their own advice. They are what is wrong with the world today. Well over here at Ride or Pine, I don’t just believe in what I say, I put my money where my mouth is, and I bet on the teams that I write about.
So what do you say we dive into this week’s bets and make some money?
GREEN BAY -3 @ CIN
Are we serious right now? Where is the respect for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers?
Now for those of you who aren’t too familiar with the betting world, the home team usually gets three points on the spread just for playing at home. That means if Green Bay and Cincinnati were playing at a neutral location, this line would be even. Well, I have news for you ladies and gentlemen, the Green Bay Packers are just better than the Cincinnati Bengals, and that's a fact.
They have a better quarterback, a much better coach and a much better running back, especially considering that Joe Mixon will not play in this game. Everything that I have seen from both teams from this season just tells me that this is not a game Green Bay has any business losing.
The Packers are also coming into this game on a three-game winning streak, while the Bengals are coming off a Thursday night game they should have lost. I don’t know about y’all, but I’d much rather bet on the reigning MVP and a team that is going to be competing for the Super Bowl than a team who is without one of their best offensive players and really should have lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Packers win this one by at least a touchdown. Take that to the bank.
LA CHARGERS -2 VS CLE
The LA Chargers have had a great start to this season and have proved that they are the real deal. Not only are they 3-1 ATS this year, but they have had great quarterback play, and their much improved defense has proved that they can show up in key moments.
The Chargers second year phenom, Justin Herbert, has put the NFL on notice with his insane arm talent and his ability to help put points on the scoreboard. The oddsmakers think this is going to be a close game. Personally, I would rather bet on the team who has had the better quarterback play and can put up points with anyone in the league.
Baker Mayfield is also coming off his worst performance of the season in week four, which might have had something to do with the shoulder injury that he sustained back in week two against the Texans. The Browns are indeed one of the best running teams in the NFL, which is an area the Chargers have had problems with this season, but this just feels like a game where the Chargers put their name on the map and prove that they are a real threat in the AFC.
All things considered, I think it’s a close game, but if it comes down to a game winning drive I’d much rather have Herbert than Mayfield.
Chargers win this one at “home.”
COWBOYS -7 VS NYG
I said it in last week’s article, and I will say it again. I believe in the Dallas Cowboys. It feels wrong to say, but why shouldn’t I trust them? Their offense is currently 4th in PPG, their defense is a real factor now and their only loss came against the defending super bowl champions in a close game on opening night.
You know what stat I like the most though? They are the only team in the league who is 4-0 against the spread this season. I said it before, but if it ain't broke, dont fix it. Now I will admit, I usually don’t like to bet on divisional games because the teams know each other so well that anything can happen, but this spread is too sweet to pass up.
Now, I know I am betting on Dallas to win this game, but I feel just as good betting on the New York Giants to lose it. Like let’s be honest, the Giants are not winning two in a row, and they will sink back to being one of the worst teams in football.
I also think it’s worth mentioning that it was about this time last year when the Giants came into Dallas for a late afternoon game. Dallas was riding high, much like they are right now, and it was against the Giants that Dak Prescott suffered the ankle injury that sidelined him for all of last year.
Now, I don’t know Dak Prescott personally, but if that were me, I would want revenge. I would want to BLOW OUT the New York Giants and prove to everybody in the league that the Dallas Cowboys are for real. Their offense has never been better ,this is the best defense that Dak has had during his tenure and Daniel Jones is definitely in the running for being a bottom five quarterback in the league right now.
Mark my words. The Cowboys are the real deal this year and will blowout the Giants by at least 10 points.
That wraps up this week’s edition of “Ride or Pine,” and as I said before, I am going to be betting on all of these spreads I have listed, and I suggest that you do as well.
See ya next week.