Ride or Pine: Week 14
Graphic by Anna Gruben
Welcome back to Ride or Pine, the only fantasy football column in America that is going to help your team get into the playoffs.
To show you that we are all in this together, here is a list of my priorities for the next four weeks:
1. Fantasy football
2. NFL spread bets
3. The act of watching every single NFL game
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157. Finals, friends and family
The last time I checked, those things listed at the bottom don’t help us win championships or money, so I don’t need them.
If you are reading this right now and you do happen to fall in one of those categories, don’t worry, you did finish higher than “shoveling snow.”
You’re welcome.
To be honest, I don’t even want to recap last week. I am too pumped and too excited to dive into what might be the most important week of fantasy football for a lot of you.
LET’S GET AFTER IT!
Rides:
QB: Kirk Cousins vs PIT- Even coming off of a humiliating loss at the hands of the Detroit Lions, I still really like Kirk Cousins as a fantasy football quarterback. He has at least two touchdown passes in his last five games, and I don’t think there is a better quarterback in NFL history who puts up better numbers when his team is just below .500. He will probably throw for four touchdowns and 400 yards just to tease all of you Vikings fans.
RB: Ezekiel Elliot @ WFT- I am still a believer in Zeke. Yes, he has definitely had some down games in recent weeks, but I think this next stretch of games against Washington (twice) and the Giants is where he turns it around. Even in his reduced role, he is still the goal-line back, he still gets a majority of the snaps and this 10 day rest period between games should be very beneficial for him and that knee injury.
RB: Javonte Williams vs DET- If Melvin Gordon is out for a second-straight week, Javonte Williams is a must-start in any format. In his first start with Gordon out, Williams put up 178 scrimmage yards, six receptions and a touchdown. Even with Gordon in the lineup, I think Williams is a must-start simply due to his pure ability and talent. He also gets to face off against Detroit at home — a team that is allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
WR: D.J. Moore vs ATL- Since Cam Newton has taken over, D.J. Moore has had either a touchdown or 100 yards in every game. Also, Carolina fired their offensive coordinator, Joe Brady. I would expect their new OC to get the ball into the hands of their best offensive weapon, which is without a doubt D.J. Moore. Carolina is also at home against the Falcons, who are terrible against the pass.
WR: Diontae Johnson @ MIN- I would like to think it would be common sense to start Diontae Johnon if you own him, but just in case, I am putting him on this list. Here are the only wide receivers I would start over Diontae Johnson this week: Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson. That’s it. Minnesota’s pass defense is also just as bad as the Falcons.
TE: Tyler Conklin vs PIT- With Adam Thielen most likely out for Thursday night, I expect Tyler Conklin to get a little bit more production. Conklin is definitely not a must-start, but if you are weak at the tight end position, he is a great option off waivers.
FLEX: Tony Pollard @ WFT- I know I already put Zeke on this list, but Pollard just so happens to be on a little hot streak of his own right now. He’s got a touchdown in each of his last two games and has provided a pretty solid floor all season if you are a team that needs some security at the RB2 or flex position.
D/ST: Seahawks @ HOU- There have been eight games this season where the Houston Texans have failed to score 15 points or more. Plus, rookie quarterback Davis Mills is expected to start at quarterback this week. Lord have mercy on my boy “Richard Mills.”
Pines:
QB: Teddy Bridgewater vs DET- The good news for Teddy Bridgwater is that he is playing the Lions this week. The bad news is that he is a bottom-tier quarterback and hasn't had over 20 fantasy points in a single game he has started at home this season. I know the matchup seems good, and in theory it is, but I wouldn’t go against the eye test and the data if I were you.
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs LV- I wouldn’t say that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a must-sit this week, but I would definitely manage your expectations. For someone you probably drafted in the second or third round, CEH is only getting about 50% of the snaps since he has come back from injury. He definitely gives you a safe floor of around 8-12 points, but that’s really all I see him doing if he doesn’t get in the end zone (something he has only done three times this year).
RB: Tevin Coleman vs NO- Good news for Tevin Coleman is that he seems to be the lead back in the Jets backfield. Bad news for Tevin Coleman is that he is the lead back in the Jets backfield, and he plays New Orleans this week, who is very good against the run. Just don’t play him.
WR: Chase Claypool @ MIN- I said it a couple weeks ago, and I’ll repeat it again, Chase Claypool is a terrible player in terms of fantasy football. He’s in a terrible offense, has a terrible quarterback, and his only value is if he gets a long touchdown. I guess he is playing Minnesota this week, but Diontae Johnson is the receiver to own in this offense, not Claypool.
WR: Julio Jones vs JAX- Julio Jones is the ultimate boom or bust for week 14. He will play in his first game since coming off IR, and it will be without fellow Pro-Bowl receiver A.J. Brown. Jones should definitely lead the team in targets which makes this situation interesting, but due to it being his first game back and his injury history, it’s a risk I’m not willing to take with the playoffs on the line. However, if you know you need a big week from someone in order to win, Julio Jones might just be your guy.
TE: Tyler Higbee @ ARI- After Robert “Bobby Trees” Woods was declared out for the season, a lot of people thought that Tyler Higbee would see an uptick in production. Well, that has just not been the case. Arizona also has a legit defense.
FLEX: Mark Ingram @ NYJ- If Kamara is playing in this one, Ingram belongs on your bench. Even if Kamara doesn’t play, Ingram still belongs on your bench.
D/ST: Bills and Bucs- These two teams are playing each other this week, and I expect it to be a high-scoring affair. I would be cautious playing both of these defenses this week.
Record ATS: (22-12-1)
Last weeks record: (1-1)
Lock of the week (1-2)
Lock of the year (1-0)
I would like to thank Mac Jones (and mother nature) for single-handedly leading the Patriots to not only a win against the Bills, but for giving me my first win for lock of the week.
There are a lot of spreads that I love this week, so let's get into it.
DALLAS -4 @ WFT
This is the Lock of the Week.
We are officially back to betting on the Cowboys until further notice.
The Cowboys are going into this game the healthiest that they have been all season, and I fully expect them to get back on track against a very mediocre team in Washington.
Yes, Washington is coming into this game on a two-game winning streak, but those were both last-second wins against the Seahawks and the Raiders. On the other hand, the Cowboys are coming into this one fresh off a mini bye week after blowing out the Saints last Thursday night.
Also, in the two division games the Cowboys have played this year, they not only won, but their average margin of victory was 22 points.
Everyone besides Dallas in the NFC East is a joke, and the Cowboys have done a great of beating up on bad teams when they are fully healthy (other than the game against the Broncos).
I don’t think there is any way that Dallas loses this game, and it would be more than disappointing if they won by a field goal or less.
BUFFALO +3 @ TB
If you look at the strengths of each team, I think the Bills matchup very well against the Bucs.
The Buccaneers strengths are obviously their rushing defense/front seven and the weapons they have on offense. Buffalo’s strengths are beating you with their defense and their high powered passing attack.
Tampa Bay has a terrible secondary that has been depleted with injuries and have shown you that teams can beat them by targeting their perimeter receivers. I also believe that Tom Brady will struggle with a defense that plays as physically as the Bills do.
Buffalo needs a win this week to keep their #1 seed hopes alive, and Tampa Bay has gotten lucky in a couple of their high-profile wins this season. I think their luck runs out this week.
Buffalo has the best quarterback, the best wide receiver and the better defense. They will win this game outright, and even if you don't believe me, you are still getting three points that increase your chances of covering even if they lose.
Plus, who wants to root for Tom Brady?
MINNESOTA -3 VS PIT
Pittsburgh is just flat out awful, and I think the Vikings wipe the floor with them in this Thursday night game.
Yes, I am very well aware the Vikings were embarrassed by the Lions last week, but honestly, they were due for a loss that devastates their entire fanbase. It happens at least twice a year.
Now that we got them all out of the way, and the Vikings are now two games below .500, it’s time for them to play like the 2007 Patriots.
In all seriousness though, the Vikings still have the more talented roster, and a loss against Big Ben and the Steelers would almost certainly result in riots in the streets and Mike Zimmer being fired the following Friday.
Unfortunately for me, I don’t see that happening.
They still have a shot at the playoffs, but if they lose this game, they can kiss those hopes goodbye.
BIG MONEY PARLAY:
Kansas City ML vs LV
New Orleans ML @ NYJ
Tennessee ML @ JAX
Atlanta +3 @ CAR
Dallas ML @ WFT
Seattle ML @ HOU
Denver ML vs DET
$35 to win $309.15
TWO TEAM PARLAY:
(This one hit last week)
Falcons ML @ CAR
Minnesota ML vs PIT
$30 to win $79.51