Ride or Pine: Week 13
Graphic by Anna Gruben
Welcome back to Ride or Pine, the only fantasy football column at UMD where you can get betting advice from a humbled sports gambler coming off of a losing week. That’s right, the streak is dead. We have encountered our first losing week.
It was only right that the Vikings were the ones to mess it up.
Despite our bad gambling luck, the fantasy football predictions were on point last weekend, as the rides absolutely destroyed the pines:
Rides: 87.2 (4-1 record)
Pines: 55.1 (1-4 record)
As we approach the last two weeks of the regular season for most leagues, I am going to enter LeBron James Zero-Dark-Thirty mode. All of my rides and pines for the rest of the season are going to be well thought out and well researched decisions, with the sole purpose of helping the loyal readers of Ride or Pine.
So, if you are on the playoff bubble, or going for that one seed, it's go time baby.
RIDES:
QB: Derek Carr vs WAS- Despite the fact that the Washington Football Team just held the Seahawks to a lousy 15 points, I am convinced that result says a lot more about the Seahawks offense than it does about the Washington defense. Derek Carr is someone I really like this week because I really believe this Raiders team has finally moved on from all of their off-the-field problems, and they are going to have a statement game against Washington. I like Derek Carr to throw at least two touchdowns in this one.
RB: Antonio GIbson @ LV- What happened yesterday was truly amazing, and if you have held onto Anotnio Gibson this season or for some reason traded for him, you are going to be in a great spot. He had a career high 36 touches on Monday night and it does not look good for J.D. McKissic to play against the Raiders, as he was carted off the field on Monday night. I am expecting big things from Gibson for not only this week, but for as long as McKissic is out.
RB: Tony Pollard @ NO and Jamaal Williams vs MIN- I have two names in this spot because Jamaal Williams is a must play against an abysmal Minnesota rushing defense if D’Andre Swift does not play. If Swift does play, I really like Pollard this week, especially if you are in a PPR league. There are obviously some injury concerns with Zeke, but the Cowboys have said he’s going to have a full workload. I, however, am not buying it. I like both these guys this week.
WR: Jaylen Waddle vs NYG- Coming off another impressive week, Jaylen Waddle is a lineup lock until further notice. He has an undeniable connection with Tua Tagovailoa that has made him one of the most impressive rookie receivers so far this season. This Giants defense is middle-of-the-pack against opposing wide receivers, so I am going to ride this Waddle wave for as long as he lets me.
WR: Hunter Renfrow vs WAS- If you watched Hunter Renfrow on Thanksgiving, you know that he was eating more than Phillip Rivers’ entire family (if you didn’t know, Rivers has nine kids). Renfrow had eight catches for 134 yards, and the good news for him going forward is that Darren Waller is unlikely to play this week. I expect him to have another great week as Carr’s number one receiving option.
TE: Pat Freiermuth vs BAL- With Eric Ebron back on the IR, Pat Freiermuth is a great option if you don't have one of the stud tight ends on your team. He has five touchdowns in his past five games. He is also Ben Rothlesberger’s favorite end-zone target.
FLEX: Brandon Aiyuk @ SEA- Deebo Samuel is going to miss this week with a groin strain, which means that George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk are going to be top receiving options for Jimmy G. We know that the talent is there with Aiyuk because we saw it last season, so I think this is a game where he sees a lot of targets and burns this Seattle defense for a big play or two.
D/ST: Colts @ HOU- The Colts defense has looked really good all season, and if you can get them off the waiver wire, I would start them with confidence against Houston.
PINES:
QB: Russell Wilson vs SF- You can’t start Russell Wilson anymore the way he has been playing as of late, especially when these games at the end of the season mean so much. I know it’s hard leaving a big name like that on your bench, but since he has come back from that finger injury, he has averaged just 11.2 points. The Seahawks have also historically not played the best against San Francisco on the road. Look in another direction this week.
RB: Miles Sanders @ NYJ- The last time Miles Sanders scored double-digit fantasy points was back in WEEK ONE! Sanders has obviously been one of the biggest disappointments this season and has gotten to the point where Boston Scott is getting more carries than he is. I know it’s the Jets, but leave him on your bench.
RB: Damien Harris @ BUF- We just saw this Buffalo Bills defense hold the Saints to just 44 rushing yards. That being said, Bill Belichick isn’t going to give Damien Harris 20 carries just so he can get 70 yards and a touchdown while the Patriots get blown out by 20. This is going to be a heavy running back committee game where we see a lot of Brandon Bolden catching passes out of the backfield, which will leave Harris fighting for snaps with Rhamondre Stevenson. I would rather play Tony Pollard or Boston Scott over Harris.
WR: Jerry Jeudy @ KC- So far this season, Jerry Jeudy has zero touchdown receptions. Also, since he has been back from injury, he has failed to reach 70 receiving yards in a single game. The fact of the matter is that this Broncos team is run-heavy, which doesn’t fare very well for Jeudy. If you have another option at receiver, I would highly suggest you stay away this week, especially against a vastly improving Kansas CIty defense.
WR: Elijah Moore vs PHI- I don’t know why, but every game where Zach Wilson is the starter, Moore performs terribly. In those games Moore averages THREE fantasy points a game! That should tell you all you need to know.
TE: Dallas Goedert @ NYJ- This Eagles team is obviously a run-first team now, leaving a low ceiling on the kind of production we can expect from Dallas Goedert. Now, he does have some value if the Eagles get down near the end-zone, but so does almost every other tight end in the league.
FLEX: Van Jefferson vs JAX- Van Jefferson had one long touchdown catch that made him fantasy relevant last week against the Packers. Other than that, he did next to nothing in a game the Rams were passing in the entire time. I know they are playing Jacksonville this week, but that Jaguar defense has been sneaky good as of late. If you need a boom kind of a day from someone, Jefferson isn’t a bad option, but I think he can just as easily bust and leave your playoff hopes ruined.
D/ST: Broncos @ KC- I wouldn’t want anything to do with this Kansas City team who is not only heating up, but they are coming off a bye and are playing at home. Never bet against Patrick Mahomes.
BETTING LINES:
Record ATS: (21-11-1)
Last weeks record: (1-2)
Lock of the week (0-2)
Lock of the year (1-0)
That’s right, I am still here.
Last week I said that I would retire from this column if the Falcons did not cover against the Jaguars, making me 1-0 on locks of the year.
Looking at the spreads for this week, I absolutely hate 90% of them. That being said, I’ll do my best to navigate this ambiguity, and I am confident we can pull out a winning week.
ATLANTA +11 vs TB
I literally don’t care what any of you say. I believe that the Falcons can cover this spread. They definitely will not win, but to say they wont cover is a lie.
This spread tells me that Vegas thinks the Falcons are a bottom-three team in the league, and I don’t know if you noticed, but the Falcons are 5-6 and still have a lot to play for.
This is a division game, and we all know that division games can get weird. I think this is going to be one of those games that the Falcons are in until the end.
I’m sure none of you are going to bet on this, but guess what, you will regret it.
NEW ENGLAND +3 @ BUF
Remember that research I did a couple weeks ago that showed the record of underdogs on the road, against a division opponent? Well, the teams that fit that criteria who are also a five-point or less underdog are 11-6 this season.
Not only are you betting on a Belichick-coached team, but you are betting on what is currently the hottest team in football.
I’m sure you have seen the stat that the Patriots have outscored their last six opponents by 148 points — that is extremely impressive.
As for the Bills, they have not won a single impressive game this entire season. They lost to the Titans when Tennessee was at their peak. They lost to Jacksonville when the Jaguars were at their worst (they are still at their worst). And finally, they were embarrassed by the Colts and let Jonothan Taylor score five touchdowns on their head.
As much as people don’t want to admit it, this is not the same Josh Allen from last year, and I truly believe he will struggle against an elite defense like the Patriots. Not to say Allen is washed by any means, but he hasn’t played outstanding either.
We are betting on this team because the math is telling you to, the recent success is telling you to, and quite frankly, I am telling you to. The Patriots are the lock of the week. All the vibes are good when it comes to this pick.
I usually do three picks each week, but I hate the rest of the spreads for week 13. I don’t want to just bet on games to bet on them — I bet on them to win. So, only two games this week.
Here are some great parlays though:
(I bet on both of these already)
BIG MONEY PARLAY:
Dallas ML
Minnesota ML
Arizona ML
Kansas City ML
Indianapolis ML
Los Angeles Rams ML
$50 to win $174
TWO TEAM PARLAY:
Chargers ML
Dolphins ML
$30 to win $87